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UFC St. Louis best bets: picks, odds and predictions

UFC St. Louis best bets: picks, odds and predictions

This article is part of our UFC Picks series.

Betting tips for UFC St. Louis: Four bets for Saturday, May 11

The UFC hits the road for UFC St. Louis on Saturday, May 11. The main event sees the heavyweights collide as Derrick Lewis takes on Rodrigo Nascimento.

Below I share my favorite game: an underdog, a prop and a parlay with two fighters. All odds are from the DraftKings Sportsbook and are accurate as of the date of this article’s publication.

Weight class: Heavyweight

Derrick Lewis (27-12 and 1 NC) vs. Rodrigo Nascimento (11-1 and 1 NC)

I’m rooting for Derrick Lewis to raise his hand in the main event against Rodrigo Nascimento on Saturday.

Lewis is taking a step back from competition to take on Nascimento, who I have not been impressed with in the UFC. The Brazilian is coming off decisive wins over Don’Tale Mayes, Ilir Latifi and Tanner Boser in his last three fights, which aren’t necessarily impressive wins. His only loss was also by KO against Chris Daukaus in 45 seconds – a fighter not known for his KO power.

The way to beat Lewis is to take him down, but Nascimento isn’t the best at wrestling (he has a 33 percent takedown accuracy). Lewis has stuffed takedowns on better wrestlers, and I expect him to hold his own and land a KO shot in the first or second round, as I don’t trust Nascimento’s chin.

UFC St. Louis best bet: Derrick Lewis (-155)

Weight class: lightweight

Chase Hooper (13-3-1) vs. Slava Borschev (7-3-1)

For my underdog at UFC St. Louis, I’m backing Chase Hooper to raise his hand against Slava Borschev on Saturday night.

Hooper is 2-0 since moving up to lightweight, but his striking defense is still a concern. While Borschev is a great striker, his main weaknesses are his takedown defense and the fact that he gives up his back so easily.

When Borschev lost to Mike Davis and Marc Diakiese, he gave up nine and eleven takedowns respectively, as well as four in his draw against Nazim Sadykhov. I expect Hooper to be able to get the fight to the ground and get the back of Borchev to ultimately get a submission win or ground-and-pound TKO.

This should be a pick’em fight as there are clear paths to victory for both men. At plus money, I trust the grappler here in Hooper, who has improved his striking defense and has a better chin at 155 pounds.

UFC St. Louis best bet: Chase Hooper (+124)

Weight class: Welterweight

Joaquin Buckley (18-6) vs. Nursulton Ruziboev (34-8-2)

In the co-main event of UFC St. Louis, Joaquin Buckley takes on Nursulton Ruziboev, who moves down to welterweight in a fight that took place on relatively short notice, and I support the fight going over 1.5 rounds.

Since dropping down to welterweight, Buckley is 3-0 and his chin is much better. Ruziboev is a knockout artist, but I have questions about how his power will translate at 170 pounds. While all of his UFC wins have come in the first round, Buckley is a huge step up in competition for Ruziboev, and I doubt he’ll be able to knock him out.

Instead, Buckley can use his wrestling to take Ruziboev down to prolong the fight and tire him out. The longer the fight goes, the better it is for Buckley, and I expect him to fight smart here to help the 1.5-plus rounds.

UFC St. Louis best bet: Joaquin BuckleyNursulton Ruziboev more than 1.5 laps (-140)

Weight classes: welterweight and light heavyweight

Kevin Jousset (10-2) vs. Jared Gooden (23-9)
Carlos Ulberg (9-1) vs. Alonzo Menifield (15-3-1)

For my parlay, I’m taking Kevin Jousset and Carlos Ulberg to raise their hands at UFC St. Louis.

Jousset’s second fight of the evening pits him against Jared Gooden. Jousset trains at City Kickboxing and is a technical striker, where he will be able to achieve success. He should be able to pick apart Gooden on the feet, as Gooden has a negative striking differential (he absorbs a rather shocking 6.68 per minute). Jousset throws a lot of volume and will be able to achieve a one-sided decision win here.

For my other leg, I’m backing Carlos Ulberg to take the win against Alonzo Menifield. Ulberg is a great striker who learned a lot from his first career loss (which was his debut). Menifield is on a roll, but his cardio is still a concern as he throttles during fights. Ulberg will be the much better striker here and can pick Menifield apart and avoid those power shots. See if you get a late TKO or a 30-27 decision victory.

Best odds on UFC St. Louis: Kevin Jousset & Carlos Ulberg Parlay (-101)

UFC St. Louis best bets

Here’s a summary of this weekend’s UFC St. Louis best bets:

For up-to-date information on the latest odds and props from multiple sportsbooks, check out the UFC Odds page on RotoWire.

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